Dzmitry Kolkin

Will Belarus fully benefit from the Eurasian Economic Union?

On January 1, 2015, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) of Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia was officially launched. Built on the vague and short free-trade experience of the Customs Union of Belarus, Russia, and Kazakhstan (only in operation since July 2011), the future of the EEU is by no means assured. In particular, the EEU seems to lack two key preconditions of economic integration, namely economic policy convergence and institutional support. Current trends in trade, labor, and capital flows between Belarus and other EEU countries leads us to conclude that the potential benefits for Belarus from EEU membership do not trigger economic growth, but rather sustain structural problems of Belarusian economy.